Introduction:
The Opinion Poll Conducted For The Karnataka Election Is A Useful Tool For Gauging Voter Sentiment And State Politics. In This Comprehensive Study, We Investigate The Nuances Of Opinion Polls Carried Out Prior To The Karnataka Elections, Looking At The Approaches, Results, And Electoral Ramifications.
Recognizing Opinion Surveys:
Surveys Known As Opinion Polls Are Used To Find Out What The General Public Thinks About A Range Of Political Topics, Such As Party Popularity, Voter Preferences, And Election Results. In Order To Gather Information From A Representative Sample Of The Voters And Reveal Current Attitudes And Trends, These Surveys Use Sampling Procedures.
The 2024 Indian general election in Karnataka will be held on 26 April 2024, and 7 May 2024, during the second and third phases respectively, to elect members of the 18th Lok Sabha.
Background:
The last date for filing nominations for candidates contesting in constituencies falling in the phase two of the polls was 4 April, and that for phase three was 19 April.[3]
A total of 247 candidates, which included 226 men and 21 women, contested from the 14 constituencies that went for polls in phase two on 26 April. The constituency with most contestants was Chikballapur (29) and the least was Dakshina Kannada (9). More than 28.8 million voters were eligible to vote in 30,602 polling stations. Of these, 19,701 polling stations were announced to be webcast, and 1,370 would be covered via CCTVs. It also included 1,832 special booths with 1,120 of them dedicated to women voters. It was reported that those booths would only have women personnel, including the police and group-D workers. 224 booths were set up for disabled persons, with disabled persons serving as the personnel there. Another 224 booths were set up dedicated for youth with young officials as personnel, intended to encourage youth to take part in polling. In addition to this, one theme-based polling booth in every Assembly constituency was set up that intending to focus on the cultural heritage of the region.
Ahead of the phase two, the Chief Electoral Officer of Karnataka stated that 140,000 personnel would be on duty and that 5,000 micro-observers, 50,000 civil police personnel, 65 companies of Central Parliamentary Force and State Armed Police force of other States would also be deployed for security.
Election schedule:
| Poll event | Phase | |
|---|---|---|
| II | III | |
| Notification Date | 28 March | 12 April |
| Last Date for filing nomination | 4 April | 19 April |
| Scrutiny of nomination | 5 April | 20 April |
| Last Date for withdrawal of nomination | 8 April | 22 April |
| Date of poll | 26 April | 7 May |
| Date of counting of votes/Result | 4 June 2024 | |
| No. of constituencies | 14 | 14 |
Constituencies in phases:
| Phase | Poll Date | Constituencies | Voter Turnout (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| II | 26 April 2024 | Udupi Chikmagalur, Hassan, Dakshina Kannada, Chitradurga, Tumkur, Mandya, Mysore, Chamarajanagar, Bangalore Rural, Bangalore North, Bangalore Central, Bangalore South, Chikkballapur, Kolar | 69.56% |
| III | 7 May 2024 | Chikkodi, Belgaum, Bagalkot, Bijapur, Gulbarga, Raichur, Bidar, Koppal, Bellary, Haveri, Dharwad, Uttara Kannada, Davanagere, Shimoga |
Parties and alliances:
National Democratic Alliance:
| Party | Flag | Symbol | Leader | Contesting Seats | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bharatiya Janata Party |  |
 |
B. Y. Vijayendra | 25 | |
| Janata Dal (Secular) |  |
 |
H. D. Kumaraswamy | 3 | |
| Total | 28 | ||||
Indian National Developmental Inclusive
Alliance:
| Party | Flag | Symbol | Leader | Contesting Seats | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indian National Congress |  |
 |
D. K. Shivakumar | 28 | |
Others:
| Party | Flag | Symbol | Leader | Contesting Seats | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bahujan Samaj Party |  |
 |
TBD | 21 | |
| Communist Party of India (Marxist) |
 |
 |
TBD | 1 | |
| Total | 22 | ||||
| Party | Symbol | Contesting Seats | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Karnataka Rashtra Samithi | 28 | ||
| Uttama Prajaakeeya Party | 20 | ||
| Socialist Unity Centre of India (Communist) | 19 | ||
| Bahujan Bharat Party | 4 | ||
| Bharatiya Prajagala Kalyana Paksha | 4 | ||
| Prahar Janshakti Party | 4 | ||
| Republican Party of India (Athawale) | 4 | ||
| Samajwadi Janata Party (Karnataka) | 4 | ||
| Young Star Empowerment Party | 4 | ||
| Country Citizen Party | 3 | ||
| Indian Labour Party (Ambedkar Phule) | 3 | ||
| Kannada Paksha | 3 | ||
| Karunada Sevakara Party | 3 | ||
| Navabharath Sena | 3 | ||
| Rashtriya Samaj Dal (R) | 3 | ||
| Republican Party of India (Karnataka) | 3 | ||
| Socialist Party (India) | 3 | ||
| All India Ulama Congress | 2 | ||
| Indian Movement Party | 2 | ||
| Janahitha Paksha | 2 | ||
| Karnataka Janata Paksha | 2 | ||
| Naki Bharatiya Ekta Party | 2 | ||
| Proutist Bloc, India | 2 | ||
| Purvanchal Mahapanchayat | 2 | ||
| Rani Chennamma Party | 2 | ||
| Sarva Janata Party | 2 | ||
| Tipu Sultan Party | 2 | ||
| Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi | 2 | ||
| Voters Independent Party | 2 | ||
| Bharatheeya Jawan Kisan Party | 1 | ||
| Bhartiya Bahujan Kranti Dal | 1 | ||
| Bhartiya Jan Samrat Party | 1 | ||
| Challengers Party | 1 | ||
| Delhi Janta Party | 1 | ||
| Desh Prem Party | 1 | ||
| Digvijaya Bharatha Party | 1 | ||
| Dr. Ambedkar People’s Party | 1 | ||
| Ekam Sanatan Bharat Dal | 1 | ||
| Gareeb Aadmi Party | 1 | ||
| Karnataka Karmikara Paksha | 1 | ||
| Karnataka Praja Party (RaithaParva) | 1 | ||
| Karunaadu Party | 1 | ||
| Kranti Kari Jai Hind Sena | 1 | ||
| National Maha Sabha Party | 1 | ||
| Proutist Sarva Samaj | 1 | ||
| Pyramid Party of India | 1 | ||
| Raita Bharat Party | 1 | ||
| Rashtriya Samaj Paksha | 1 | ||
| Republican Party of India Bharatha | 1 | ||
| Samaj Vikas Kranti Party | 1 | ||
| Secular Democratic Congress | 1 | ||
| Total | 161 | ||
Candidates:
| Constituency | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDA | INDIA | ||||||
| 1 | Chikkodi | BJP | Annasaheb Jolle | INC | Priyanka Jarkiholi | ||
| 2 | Belgaum | BJP | Jagadish Shettar | INC | Mrunal Ravindra Hebbalkar | ||
| 3 | Bagalkot | BJP | P. C. Gaddigoudar | INC | Samyukta S Patil | ||
| 4 | Bijapur | BJP | Ramesh Jigajinagi | INC | H.R. Algur | ||
| 5 | Gulbarga | BJP | Umesh. G. Jadhav | INC | Radhakrishna | ||
| 6 | Raichur | BJP | Raja Amareshwara Naik | INC | G Kumair Naik | ||
| 7 | Bidar | BJP | Bhagwanth Khuba | INC | Sagar Khandre | ||
| 8 | Koppal | BJP | Basavaraj Kyavator | INC | K. Rajashekar Basavaraj Hintal | ||
| 9 | Bellary | BJP | B. Sriramulu | INC | E. Tukaram | ||
| 10 | Haveri | BJP | Basavaraj Bommai | INC | Anandswamy Gaddadevara Math | ||
| 11 | Dharwad | BJP | Pralhad Joshi | INC | Vinod Asooti | ||
| 12 | Uttara Kannada | BJP | Vishweshwar Hegde Kageri | INC | Anjali Nimbalkar | ||
| 13 | Davanagere | BJP | Gayathri Siddheshwara | INC | Prabha Mallikarjun | ||
| 14 | Shimoga | BJP | B. Y. Raghavendra | INC | Geeta Shivarajkumar | ||
| 15 | Udupi Chikmagalur | BJP | Kota Srinivas Poojary | INC | K. Jayaprakash Hegde | ||
| 16 | Hassan | JD(S) | Prajwal Revanna | INC | Shreyas Patel Gowda | ||
| 17 | Dakshina Kannada | BJP | Brijesh Chowta | INC | Padmaraj | ||
| 18 | Chitradurga | BJP | Govind Karjol | INC | B. N. Chandrappa | ||
| 19 | Tumkur | BJP | V. Somanna | INC | S. P. Muddahanumegowda | ||
| 20 | Mandya | JD(S) | H.D. Kumaraswamy | INC | Venkataramane Gowda | ||
| 21 | Mysore | BJP | Yaduveer Wadiyar | INC | M Lakshman | ||
| 22 | Chamarajanagar | BJP | S. Balaraj | INC | Sunil Bose | ||
| 23 | Bangalore Rural | BJP | C. N. Manjunath | INC | D. K. Suresh | ||
| 24 | Bangalore North | BJP | Shobha Karandlaje | INC | Rajeev Gowda | ||
| 25 | Bangalore Central | BJP | P. C. Mohan | INC | Mansoor Ali Khan | ||
| 26 | Bangalore South | BJP | Tejasvi Surya | INC | Soumya Reddy | ||
| 27 | Chikballapur | BJP | K. Sudhakar | INC | Raksha Ramaiah | ||
| 28 | Kolar | JD(S) | M Mallesh Babu | INC | K V Gowtham | ||
Techniques:
In Karnataka, Opinion Surveys Usually Use Scientific Sampling Techniques To Guarantee Dependability And Accuracy. To Collect Information From A Range Of Demographic Groups, Polling Organizations Utilize A Combination Of Online Questionnaires, In-Person Interviews, And Telephone Polls. The Margin Of Error, Sampling Methods, And Sample Size All Play A Significant Role In How Credible The Poll Results Are.
Important Variables:
Karnataka Opinion Polls Evaluate A Number Of Important Factors, Such As Voter Preferences For Political Parties, Leader Approval Ratings, And Significant Concerns Influencing Voting Forecasts And Judgments Regarding The Distribution Of Seats In The Legislature. By Using These Characteristics, Political Parties And Analysts May Better Gauge The Mood Of The People And Adjust Their Tactics Accordingly.
Conclusions And Forecasts:
Opinion Poll Results For The Karnataka Election Offer Important Information About Possible Outcomes. Projections Of Seat Share For Major Political Parties, Swing Variables Impacting Marginal Seats, And Demographic Trends Influencing Voting Behavior Are Frequently Included In Poll Results. Coalition Scenarios And The Likelihood Of A Winner Are Formed Based On These Calculations.
Elements Affecting Voter Attitude:
Voter Attitude In Karnataka Is Influenced By A Number Of Factors, Such As Socioeconomic Issues, Regional Dynamics, Party Campaigns, Governance Performance, And Candidate Selection. These Variables Are Examined In Opinion Surveys To Determine How They Affect Voter Choices And Election Results.
Party Effectiveness And Ratings Of Leadership:
Opinion Surveys Evaluate The Effectiveness Of Political Parties As Well As The Popularity Of Important Figures, Such As Potential Chief Ministers. Voters’ Perceptions And Electoral Preferences Are Greatly Influenced By Variables Including The Popularity, Legitimacy, And Efficacy Of Government.
Important Concerns And Voter Issues:
Opinion Surveys Pinpoint The Main Problems And Worries Influencing Karnataka Voters’ Choices. These Could Involve Matters Like Farming, Water Resources, Infrastructural Growth, Creating Jobs, Social Welfare Programs, And Maintaining Law And Order. Comprehending These Issues Aids Political Parties In Formulating Their Agendas For Campaigns And Platforms For Policies.
Regional Differences:
Karnataka Is A Varied State With Notable Geographical Differences In Terms Of Socioeconomic Growth, Language, And Culture. Opinion Surveys Examine Local Dynamics To Identify Differences In Voter Sentiment, Party Preferences, And Electoral Tactics In Various Areas, Including The Bengaluru Metropolitan Area, North Karnataka, And Coastal Karnataka.
Coalition Politics’ Effect:
Karnataka’s Electoral Environment Has Been Characterized By Coalition Politics, Wherein Alliances Have Proven To Be Important In The Creation Of Governments. Opinion Surveys Evaluate Coalition Politics’ Dynamics, Such As Prospective Party Alliances, Seat-Sharing Agreements, And The Influence Of Third-Front Candidates On The Result Of The Election.
Dependability And Precision:
Opinion Polls Are A Useful Tool For Understanding Voter Sentiment, But They Have Drawbacks, Including Respondent Bias, Sampling Mistakes, And Unanticipated Events During The Election Campaign. Poll Methodology And Sample Representativeness Are Frequently Examined By Analysts And Political Watchers In Order To Evaluate The Accuracy And Dependability Of Poll Predictions.
Public Discourse And The Media’s Role:
Opinion Polls Help Shape Narratives About Important Issues, Candidates, And Party Performance In The Public Discourse And Media Coverage Of Elections. By Analyzing Voting Trends, Holding Debates, And Interacting With Voters, Media Outlets Use Poll Results To Shape The Larger Political Conversation.
Summary:
Opinion Polls On The Karnataka Election Provide Important Information About Voter Attitude, Political Dynamics, And Possible Electoral Outcomes. Through The Examination Of Voter Preferences, Salient Topics, And Party Efficacy, These Surveys Provide Political Parties, Pundits, And The General Public With Insights Into The Dynamic Electoral Terrain. Opinion Polls Are A Valuable Instrument For Gauging Public Opinion, But They Also Show The Intricacy And Volatility Of The Electoral Process, Emphasizing The Need For Careful Interpretation And Analysis.